Lock-Up Period Approaching: Public QDII's HK IPO Strategy Faces Unlock Test

In 2026, the Hong Kong stock market experienced sharp divergence, with traditional stock-picking strategies underperforming. However, public QDII funds, leveraging their unique status as cornerstone investors in HK IPOs, have repeatedly reaped substantial returns, becoming a rare safe haven in the industry. As the window for concentrated new share unlocks in July approaches, whether this strategy relying on institutional dividends can be sustained has attracted high market attention.

Public QDIIs Enjoy Exclusive IPO Dividends

Hong Kong stocks have been generally sluggish this year, with many established listed companies' share prices continuing to weaken, leaving SH-HK funds and HK Connect funds reliant on conventional stock picking in trouble. Meanwhile, a batch of new economy tech stocks with AI concepts have performed independently after IPO, bringing considerable returns to participating public QDIIs.

According to trading rules, new HK stocks are usually not eligible for the HK Connect shortly after listing, so SH-HK funds and HK Connect funds cannot act as IPO cornerstone investors. This institutional dividend makes public QDIIs the only category that can participate in HK IPOs as cornerstone investors, thus exclusively enjoying excess returns from new shares. For example, E Fund Global Quality Enterprises QDII participated as a cornerstone investor in MiniMax's IPO. MiniMax is currently its top holding, with floating gains exceeding 230%, significantly boosting the fund's NAV. Similarly, GF Global Select Equity QDII holds cornerstone shares of Zhipu AI, with single-stock investment returns reaching ten times.

Notably, the IPO strategy not only contributes excess returns but also effectively hedges portfolio risks. A pan-consumption QDII fund from a top public fund in South China saw eight of its top ten holdings experience sharp declines, but relying on an over 180% gain on Biren Technology after its listing, the fund still accumulated a positive return of 9% against the market, fully highlighting the hedging value of the IPO strategy.

Lock-Up Period Ending Tests Rebalancing Pace

However, this 'exclusive dividend' model is facing its first stress test. Securities China reporters learned in interviews that the lock-up period for HK IPO cornerstone investors is typically six months. Stocks heavily held by public QDIIs this year, such as MiniMax, Zhipu AI, and Biren Technology, were mostly listed in January, meaning they will face unlock windows starting in July.

More concerning is that many fund managers participating as cornerstone investors have long-term holdings favoring mature companies with stable cash flows and large revenues, rather than high-valuation tech stocks. When these 'value-oriented' managers suddenly have huge floating gains, they are highly likely to accelerate selling after the unlock. 'If the short-term gains are too large and cannot be explained by fundamental changes, I will definitely realize profits first,' a South China fund manager candidly admitted.

In fact, the market has already priced in unlock expectations. On June 5, MiniMax fell 16.65% in a single day, with other tech stocks like Xunce and Zhipu also under pressure. According to Huatai Securities research, the 2026 full-year HK stock unlock scale has reached HK$1.6 trillion, with about HK$1.1 trillion still to be unlocked. July, September, and December are all peak unlock periods, and short-term supply pressure cannot be ignored.

Confidence in Tech Wave Remains

Despite the uncertainty from unlocks, public funds remain confident in the second-half tech wave. Yu Huan, manager of Great Wall Jiuxin Hybrid Fund, believes AI remains the market theme, but volatility may increase, and capital will focus more on Q2 earnings delivery. Morgan Stanley Fund judges that the AI industry chain has the best cyclical outlook in the entire market, and institutional funds will spread from a few leaders to quality targets across the entire chain. Huabao Fund emphasizes that the main rally is not over, the computing power track's dividends continue to be released, and commercialization, user traffic, and monetization channels will be core considerations in the next stage.

Overall, public QDIIs' HK IPO strategy still has institutional dividends in the short term, but as the unlock wave arrives, fund managers' rebalancing pace and response capability will determine the final outcome. In a landscape where tech waves and market volatility coexist, only by clinging to fundamentals and adapting flexibly can one stay invincible.